Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
